NBA for opening week
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Re: NBA for opening week
Going against both presumptive finalists, very gutsy. No series opinions? I know you're sitting on two tickets for CLE and LAL for the title, and I also presume you don't hedge very often. I have a large (for me) ticket on CLE at even money. Thanks for posting, and GL.:cheers
Going against both presumptive finalists, very gutsy. No series opinions? I know you're sitting on two tickets for CLE and LAL for the title, and I also presume you don't hedge very often. I have a large (for me) ticket on CLE at even money. Thanks for posting, and GL.:cheers
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm not planning on hedging. I think the series price on Denver/LA is about right and the only thing I considered with Cleveland/Orlando was exact series result but not much there as far as overlay IMO. I think I put about 5% on SA to win the title at -120 or so, but never as much as I have on the Cavs. I put some on LA not to win the title at -113 a few days ago, wanted to sleep some more on it and the number had moved to -150 or something.
I'm not planning on hedging. I think the series price on Denver/LA is about right and the only thing I considered with Cleveland/Orlando was exact series result but not much there as far as overlay IMO. I think I put about 5% on SA to win the title at -120 or so, but never as much as I have on the Cavs. I put some on LA not to win the title at -113 a few days ago, wanted to sleep some more on it and the number had moved to -150 or something.
Re: NBA for opening week
Normal bet is $50 or 1% of bank, so CLE title bet is $500. Sorry, I was kidding about being flexible. I am up 3-4K for the hoops season, so I only meant that my bank is bigger than the original 5K I assign to my various 'projects' during the year. Hope that explains it, I do flat bet normally but for futures and props, I will often play more 'units' since my experience has been very positive there. Love talking money management, so any critique is welcome.
Normal bet is $50 or 1% of bank, so CLE title bet is $500. Sorry, I was kidding about being flexible. I am up 3-4K for the hoops season, so I only meant that my bank is bigger than the original 5K I assign to my various 'projects' during the year. Hope that explains it, I do flat bet normally but for futures and props, I will often play more 'units' since my experience has been very positive there. Love talking money management, so any critique is welcome.
Re: NBA for opening week
oh yeah, you are fine. how long have you been doing this?
I can tell by talking to you that 5bills is at the very least, easily replaceable. I've got the Cavs at something like an average of +170 for a little over 8% of my bankroll. It's no guarantee that Cleveland wins the series over Orlando but it's about as sure as it gets. Cleveland against anyone with their home court is going to open, or should open more importantly, a MINIMUM of -220. that number can decrease to -180 depending on what happens vs Orlando, but -180 would be a game 7 that Cavs won on a buzzer beater after losing 3 games by 20 points. you basically have a -220 at about -110 (just guessing) all that needs to happen is a cash on a -750 (my series line minimum) and that is so very probable in the NBA...
oh yeah, you are fine. how long have you been doing this?
I can tell by talking to you that 5bills is at the very least, easily replaceable. I've got the Cavs at something like an average of +170 for a little over 8% of my bankroll. It's no guarantee that Cleveland wins the series over Orlando but it's about as sure as it gets. Cleveland against anyone with their home court is going to open, or should open more importantly, a MINIMUM of -220. that number can decrease to -180 depending on what happens vs Orlando, but -180 would be a game 7 that Cavs won on a buzzer beater after losing 3 games by 20 points. you basically have a -220 at about -110 (just guessing) all that needs to happen is a cash on a -750 (my series line minimum) and that is so very probable in the NBA...
Re: NBA for opening week
I've been betting for 30 years, but serious betting only since 2002 when I started opening accounts offshore. In the old days, I would hope to lure a local into accepting lines out of the newspaper and beat them like a rented mule until I'd get cut off. One guy was at it a lot longer, and he usually beat me. The first time I saw baseball win totals online, I was hooked. Did a lot of scalping and middling in the days of Neteller and easy money transfers (I know that's looked down upon in many quarters) and made a lot of money.
I have CLE even money to win the title, and am hoping that I won't have to sweat it until the finals. Couldn't make up my mind in the west, something about LAL has bothered me all year, but I am definitely on the same page with you with the Cavs. With you quoting possible lines for a CLE-LAL/DEN finals, are you suggesting that it's a strong position to hold, or that you would buy a little back?
I've been betting for 30 years, but serious betting only since 2002 when I started opening accounts offshore. In the old days, I would hope to lure a local into accepting lines out of the newspaper and beat them like a rented mule until I'd get cut off. One guy was at it a lot longer, and he usually beat me. The first time I saw baseball win totals online, I was hooked. Did a lot of scalping and middling in the days of Neteller and easy money transfers (I know that's looked down upon in many quarters) and made a lot of money.
I have CLE even money to win the title, and am hoping that I won't have to sweat it until the finals. Couldn't make up my mind in the west, something about LAL has bothered me all year, but I am definitely on the same page with you with the Cavs. With you quoting possible lines for a CLE-LAL/DEN finals, are you suggesting that it's a strong position to hold, or that you would buy a little back?
Re: NBA for opening week
way too many mistakes so far this year. not that I didn't make a killing, but there is no celebration just quite yet. I would like to win 4 out of my last 7 to end the playoffs, but I'm always planning:
Lakers to win title +215 for 4%
to +170.
Cleveland to win title +265 for 4%
Cleveland to win title +115 to -110 for 2.2%
tiebreaker
adding an additional 2.2% on the future of Cleveland with Rings
+105 +100 whatever
G1 Boston/Chicago over 196/196.5 for 2.2%
Portland -4 for 1.1%
Atlanta series over Miami -140/-150 for 2.8%
Cleveland exact series result 4-0 over Detroit:
+217 thru +200 for 1.1%
g1 2h Boston 3rd q -4 for 1.1%
2h G1 Detroit/Cle under 89 for 1.1%
G1 San Antonio -4 over Dallas for 1.5%
2h G1 SA/Dal under 95.5 for .7%
G1 Lakers/Utah under 210 for 1.1%
G1 Atlanta/Miami under 186 for 1.1%
series: San Antonio down 0-1 over Dallas +185 for 1.1%
series exact result: Atlanta 4-2 over Miami +645 for .5%
G1 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5%
ML +500 for .4%
G1 Denver over 194 for 1.1%
2h G1 Miami/Atl under 95 for 1.5%
2h G1 Miami/Atl under 94.5 for .5%
2h G1 Atlanta ML +180 for .5%
G2 SA -5.5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G2 Chicago/Boston 1st quarter over 49/49.5 for 1.5%
pending:
Lakers to win title +215 for 4%
to +170.
Cleveland to win title +265 for 4%
Atlanta series over Miami -140/-150 for 2.8%
Cleveland exact series result 4-0 over Detroit:
+217 thru +200 for 1.1%
series: San Antonio down 0-1 over Dallas +185 for 1.1%
series exact result: Atlanta 4-2 over Miami +645 for .5%
G2 SA -5.5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G2 Chicago/Boston 1st quarter over 49/49.5 for 1.5%
history thru 4/19 (game 1's/series 1 complete)
w G1 Boston/Chicago over 196/196.5 for 2.2% w +2.0
l Portland -4 for 1.1% l
w g1 2h Boston 3rd q -4 for 1.1% w +1.0
w 2h G1 Detroit/Cle under 89 for 1.1% w +1.0
l G1 San Antonio -4 over Dallas for 1.5% l
l 2h G1 SA/Dal under 95.5 for .7% l
l G1 Lakers/Utah under 210 for 1.1% l
w G1 Atlanta/Miami under 186 for 1.1% w +1.0
w G1 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5% w +1.36
w ML +500 for .4% w +2.0
w G1 Denver over 194 for 1.1% w +1.0
w 2h G1 Miami/Atl under 95 for 1.5% w +1.36
w 2h G1 Miami/Atl under 94.5 for .5% w +.45
w 2h G1 Atlanta ML +180 for .5% w +.9
12.07 wins 4.4 losses
+7.67%
2h G2 SA/Dal under 95 for 1.1%
G2 Portland 1st q -1.5 for 1.5%
G3 Boston/Chicago over 199 for 2.5%
G2 Cleveland/Detroit over 177.5 for 1.1%
G2 Detroit 1st Q +3.5 +100/+3 +110 for 1.1%
ML +210/200 for .4%
G3 Boston/Chicago over 199 for 2.5%
over 199.5/200 for 1.1%
G3 Boston/Chicago under 203 for .6%
G2 Hou/Port 2h under 92 for .8%
G2 Lakers/Utah 2h under 109 for 1.1%
G2 Atlanta/Miami under 184 for 2.2%
G2 Denver -6 over New Orleans for 1.5%
2h G2 Phi/Orl over 94.5 for .7%
G3 San Antonio +5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G3 LA/Utah under 215 for 1.5%
G3 Boston +4 for .7%
2h G3 Chicago 3rd q -3.5 for 1.1%
2h G3 Dallas +4 for 1.1%
G3 Cle/Det over 178 for 1.5%
G3 Denver +5 to -120 for 1.5%
G4 Dallas -4.5 for 1.5%
G3 Atlanta/Miami over 186 for 1.1%
G3 Atlanta +4.5 for 1.5%
ML +170 for .5%
G4 Utah +5 over LA for 1.5%
G5 2h Atlanta +180 for 1.1%
G5 4th q under 44.5 for 1.1%
G5 Denver/NO under 197 for 1.1%
G5 2h Denver -7 +108 for .3%
G5 Denver 2h -7 +107 for .3%
Game 6 Philadelphia -5 for 1.5%
2h G6 Orl/Phi 3rd q over 47 for 1.1%
G6 2h Port/Hou 3q over 45 for .8%
G6 Atlanta +5 over Miami for 1.1%
ML +195 for .4%
G7 Bulls 1st half +3.5 for 2.5%
ML +170 for .8%
I have about 1.1% on full game at +7
Denver 4-2 over Dallas +499, +485 for .7%
G1 Denver/Dallas under 208.5 for 1.1%
G1 Orlando +3 for 1.5%
G1 2h Boston 3rd q -2.5 for 1.1%
G2 Denver/Dallas under 206 for 2.2%
G1 2h LA -7 for 1.1%
G2 Bos -3 over Orlando for 1.5%
G2 Bos/Orl over 188 for 1.1%
G2 Cleveland/Atlanta over 180 for 1.1%
2h G2 Atlanta +.5 +100 for 1.1%
G3 Lakers -1 over Houston for 2.2%
G3 2h 3rd q Boston -1 for 1.1%
G3 Cleveland -8 over Atlanta for 1.1%
G32h LaHou over 97 for .7%
G3 Denver +4 for 2.2%
G4 Lakers -3.5 over Houston for 2.2%
G4 Lakers/Houston over 194 for 1.5%
G4 Boston +5 for 1.6%
ML +195 for .5%
G4 2h Orl/Bos under 99.5 for 1.1%
G4 2h Atlanta/cle over 92 for 1.1%
G4 2h Atlanta ML +300 for .3%
G4 2h Atlanta +6 for .4%
I took Denver at +3 for 1.5% at an average of -112
G4 Denver/Dallas under 210 for 1.1%
G4 2h Dallas/Denver under 106 for 1.1%
G5 Boston/Orlando 1st q under 48.5 for 1.5%
G5 2h 3q Boston -1.5 for 1.5%
G5 2h Lakers under 98.5 for 3.5%
G5 Dallas +10.5/+10 for 2.2%
+550 for .5%
G6 Boston +7.5 for 1.7%
ML +300 for .5%
G6 2h 3q La -5 for 1.8%
G7 Boston -130 for 2.2%
G7 La/Hou under 194 for 1.5%
G7 2h La/Hou under 97.5 for 1.1%
G7 4th q Rox +.5 for 1.1%
G1 Denver +7 over LA for 2.5%
G1 Denver ML +280 for .5%
G1 Orlando +9 over Cleveland for 1.8%
way too many mistakes so far this year. not that I didn't make a killing, but there is no celebration just quite yet. I would like to win 4 out of my last 7 to end the playoffs, but I'm always planning:
Lakers to win title +215 for 4%
to +170.
Cleveland to win title +265 for 4%
Cleveland to win title +115 to -110 for 2.2%
tiebreaker
adding an additional 2.2% on the future of Cleveland with Rings
+105 +100 whatever
G1 Boston/Chicago over 196/196.5 for 2.2%
Portland -4 for 1.1%
Atlanta series over Miami -140/-150 for 2.8%
Cleveland exact series result 4-0 over Detroit:
+217 thru +200 for 1.1%
g1 2h Boston 3rd q -4 for 1.1%
2h G1 Detroit/Cle under 89 for 1.1%
G1 San Antonio -4 over Dallas for 1.5%
2h G1 SA/Dal under 95.5 for .7%
G1 Lakers/Utah under 210 for 1.1%
G1 Atlanta/Miami under 186 for 1.1%
series: San Antonio down 0-1 over Dallas +185 for 1.1%
series exact result: Atlanta 4-2 over Miami +645 for .5%
G1 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5%
ML +500 for .4%
G1 Denver over 194 for 1.1%
2h G1 Miami/Atl under 95 for 1.5%
2h G1 Miami/Atl under 94.5 for .5%
2h G1 Atlanta ML +180 for .5%
G2 SA -5.5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G2 Chicago/Boston 1st quarter over 49/49.5 for 1.5%
pending:
Lakers to win title +215 for 4%
to +170.
Cleveland to win title +265 for 4%
Atlanta series over Miami -140/-150 for 2.8%
Cleveland exact series result 4-0 over Detroit:
+217 thru +200 for 1.1%
series: San Antonio down 0-1 over Dallas +185 for 1.1%
series exact result: Atlanta 4-2 over Miami +645 for .5%
G2 SA -5.5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G2 Chicago/Boston 1st quarter over 49/49.5 for 1.5%
history thru 4/19 (game 1's/series 1 complete)
w G1 Boston/Chicago over 196/196.5 for 2.2% w +2.0
l Portland -4 for 1.1% l
w g1 2h Boston 3rd q -4 for 1.1% w +1.0
w 2h G1 Detroit/Cle under 89 for 1.1% w +1.0
l G1 San Antonio -4 over Dallas for 1.5% l
l 2h G1 SA/Dal under 95.5 for .7% l
l G1 Lakers/Utah under 210 for 1.1% l
w G1 Atlanta/Miami under 186 for 1.1% w +1.0
w G1 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5% w +1.36
w ML +500 for .4% w +2.0
w G1 Denver over 194 for 1.1% w +1.0
w 2h G1 Miami/Atl under 95 for 1.5% w +1.36
w 2h G1 Miami/Atl under 94.5 for .5% w +.45
w 2h G1 Atlanta ML +180 for .5% w +.9
12.07 wins 4.4 losses
+7.67%
2h G2 SA/Dal under 95 for 1.1%
G2 Portland 1st q -1.5 for 1.5%
G3 Boston/Chicago over 199 for 2.5%
G2 Cleveland/Detroit over 177.5 for 1.1%
G2 Detroit 1st Q +3.5 +100/+3 +110 for 1.1%
ML +210/200 for .4%
G3 Boston/Chicago over 199 for 2.5%
over 199.5/200 for 1.1%
G3 Boston/Chicago under 203 for .6%
G2 Hou/Port 2h under 92 for .8%
G2 Lakers/Utah 2h under 109 for 1.1%
G2 Atlanta/Miami under 184 for 2.2%
G2 Denver -6 over New Orleans for 1.5%
2h G2 Phi/Orl over 94.5 for .7%
G3 San Antonio +5 over Dallas for 1.5%
G3 LA/Utah under 215 for 1.5%
G3 Boston +4 for .7%
2h G3 Chicago 3rd q -3.5 for 1.1%
2h G3 Dallas +4 for 1.1%
G3 Cle/Det over 178 for 1.5%
G3 Denver +5 to -120 for 1.5%
G4 Dallas -4.5 for 1.5%
G3 Atlanta/Miami over 186 for 1.1%
G3 Atlanta +4.5 for 1.5%
ML +170 for .5%
G4 Utah +5 over LA for 1.5%
G5 2h Atlanta +180 for 1.1%
G5 4th q under 44.5 for 1.1%
G5 Denver/NO under 197 for 1.1%
G5 2h Denver -7 +108 for .3%
G5 Denver 2h -7 +107 for .3%
Game 6 Philadelphia -5 for 1.5%
2h G6 Orl/Phi 3rd q over 47 for 1.1%
G6 2h Port/Hou 3q over 45 for .8%
G6 Atlanta +5 over Miami for 1.1%
ML +195 for .4%
G7 Bulls 1st half +3.5 for 2.5%
ML +170 for .8%
I have about 1.1% on full game at +7
Denver 4-2 over Dallas +499, +485 for .7%
G1 Denver/Dallas under 208.5 for 1.1%
G1 Orlando +3 for 1.5%
G1 2h Boston 3rd q -2.5 for 1.1%
G2 Denver/Dallas under 206 for 2.2%
G1 2h LA -7 for 1.1%
G2 Bos -3 over Orlando for 1.5%
G2 Bos/Orl over 188 for 1.1%
G2 Cleveland/Atlanta over 180 for 1.1%
2h G2 Atlanta +.5 +100 for 1.1%
G3 Lakers -1 over Houston for 2.2%
G3 2h 3rd q Boston -1 for 1.1%
G3 Cleveland -8 over Atlanta for 1.1%
G32h LaHou over 97 for .7%
G3 Denver +4 for 2.2%
G4 Lakers -3.5 over Houston for 2.2%
G4 Lakers/Houston over 194 for 1.5%
G4 Boston +5 for 1.6%
ML +195 for .5%
G4 2h Orl/Bos under 99.5 for 1.1%
G4 2h Atlanta/cle over 92 for 1.1%
G4 2h Atlanta ML +300 for .3%
G4 2h Atlanta +6 for .4%
I took Denver at +3 for 1.5% at an average of -112
G4 Denver/Dallas under 210 for 1.1%
G4 2h Dallas/Denver under 106 for 1.1%
G5 Boston/Orlando 1st q under 48.5 for 1.5%
G5 2h 3q Boston -1.5 for 1.5%
G5 2h Lakers under 98.5 for 3.5%
G5 Dallas +10.5/+10 for 2.2%
+550 for .5%
G6 Boston +7.5 for 1.7%
ML +300 for .5%
G6 2h 3q La -5 for 1.8%
G7 Boston -130 for 2.2%
G7 La/Hou under 194 for 1.5%
G7 2h La/Hou under 97.5 for 1.1%
G7 4th q Rox +.5 for 1.1%
G1 Denver +7 over LA for 2.5%
G1 Denver ML +280 for .5%
G1 Orlando +9 over Cleveland for 1.8%
Re: NBA for opening week
it was numerically a very good bet, on paper. had it about 180, Cavs got a little full of themselves but I figure Orlando has a decent shot to take game 1, not real happy that I passed on the ML.
G2 Denver...no reason to take LA. when's the last time the Nuggets lost by 6??? possibly getting 6 -115.
it was numerically a very good bet, on paper. had it about 180, Cavs got a little full of themselves but I figure Orlando has a decent shot to take game 1, not real happy that I passed on the ML.
G2 Denver...no reason to take LA. when's the last time the Nuggets lost by 6??? possibly getting 6 -115.
Re: NBA for opening week
I also like Denver/La to go under, but I'm thinking that waiting until the 2nd half might open up wider doors. I bet on game 1 3rd q over, that was a fairly large mistake as I realized right after the 3rd q started that the value was in the 4th q. In game 1's they aren't as apt to just run out the clock, it's a statement game (when it's not within 7). I really feel that Denver wins game 2. Game one must have done nothing more than give them confidence. I am looking at Billups props, not going to post them b/c every time I do that the number seems to jerk, I don't play props too much but I do like things like Paul Pierce in game 3 going back home to LA type stuff.
I also like Denver/La to go under, but I'm thinking that waiting until the 2nd half might open up wider doors. I bet on game 1 3rd q over, that was a fairly large mistake as I realized right after the 3rd q started that the value was in the 4th q. In game 1's they aren't as apt to just run out the clock, it's a statement game (when it's not within 7). I really feel that Denver wins game 2. Game one must have done nothing more than give them confidence. I am looking at Billups props, not going to post them b/c every time I do that the number seems to jerk, I don't play props too much but I do like things like Paul Pierce in game 3 going back home to LA type stuff.
