From before Saturday's picks: Yes, Rail would win 60% of Last 5 ties (and about 80% of all tiebreakers) vs your 15%, given a 25% chance of a further tie. Using the Last 10 tiebreaker he gets about 75% vs your 7%. Last 15 you start with 2W and 1L, but again Rail wins 75% vs your 3%..
Currently: at JK 12-10 vs 2-8 the contest moves even more in JK's favor, assume again JK 52% vs Rail 56% going forward, JK is 83% to win the contest vs Rail at 17% with Rail taking 93% of all tiebreakers (Rail only has a 9% chance of winning outright and 8% by tiebreaker). Breakeven contest ML is around -500 favoring JK. Again, assume no game pushes.