Re: NBA for opening week
If you have been able to invest sports payoffs into real estate, then you are one mean bastard, and I mean that in the best of ways.
one of my favorite phrases..."it is what it is..."
This is a market, a fun market, a somewhat maverick market. That is what it is to me, it's just another market. The mission statement isn't "I'm better than the oddsmaker, I'm better than the public"...it's 'this is a market that I am capable of making money in.' I think that is HELLA important to be able to assess. Optimization requires subsets IMO. How is one doing on favorites, on dogs, on overs, on unders, on 2nd half sides, on 2nd half totals, on 55%sht, on B2B3in4's, on public fades, on pin leans, then it goes to specific teams...then the overlapping really starts. But I think that is very important and those are the main subsets that I use.
This may be one of the only years that I can say that in each subset I'm showing +. It's close on overs b/c of the beginning of the year and I didn't take a whole lot of 2nd half sides (95% totals). I'm not taking much just on pinnacle leans anymore (early in the year I'm adding about double on them what I would at most give to them now, .35% vs .75% maxes). All that is just to say to what degree do I trust my number, right now? A lot. I don't think I've ever been as confident. A few hours ago I was ready for time off. Now I see some free money. The psychology of this is so very important I think it's imperative to be creative in order to succeed. Creative? I'm constantly tricking myself into new missions. But the ability to change and quickly is the most important.
I think this is the only market in which people think it's not possible to succeed. Banks certainly don't proffer an opinion that real estate ventures will fail. The stock market keeps destroying people and the general consensus is that it will still make money long term. I think it's ironic and somewhat humorous that a lot of people keep telling me to be careful and how so many people have lost so much in the sports market. No doubt, otherwise I couldn't make money. I can leave at any time, it's not like if things go completely sour that I'm going to lose anything. I started over 10 years ago with less than 10K. I've been re-investing the proceeds into residential real estate pretty much the whole time. It doesn't take a very smart person to see how lucrative that is in Austin. With the University, the government, and a decent tech industry, the economy here is going to always be fairly stable.
Miami +2 for .9%